Lebanon: To War or Not to War

The case for and against a war with Hezbollah

Since October 8, 2023, Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in a low-level conflict that has all the hallmarks of an Israeli shaping operation in anticipation of a major offensive, with several senior commanders and hundreds of rank-and-file fighters killed.

Israel faces a pressing problem: tens of thousands of citizens have been displaced for nearly a year, not only due to incessant Hezbollah bombardment, but also the ever-present fear of a larger-scale repeat of October 7 in the north as long as Hezbollah remains entrenched at the border.

Despite this, based on historical precedent and Israeli political, economic and logistical constraints, I don’t think the cost-benefit analysis currently favours a unilateral escalation in Lebanon, with all the potential risks and dubious prospects of long-term success that would entail.

I also do not assess anything on the scale of October 7 is somet…