The Management of Anarchy

Israel has no plan. But the byproduct of destroying Hamas' governance with nothing to replace it is the return of Gaza to its pre-Hamas Mogadishu days.

Days after Yisrael Beiteinu party leader and former deputy prime minister Avigdor Lieberman claimed that “Israel has provided assault rifles and light weapons to crime families in Gaza, on Netanyahu's orders… We're talking about the equivalent of [Islamic State] in Gaza,” Netanyahu confirmed that this was indeed what he was doing. “In consultation with security officials, we made use of clans in Gaza that are opposed to Hamas. What’s wrong with that? It’s only good. It saves the lives of IDF soldiers.”

The accusation follows months of reporting since November 2024, including by the Washington Post, Financial Times, New York Times, and The New Arab that this is what’s been happening. The Washington Post cited an internal UN memo from October:

An internal United Nations memo obtained by The Washington Post concluded last month that the gangs “may be benefiting from a passive if not active benevolence” or “protection” from the Israel Defense Forces. One gang leader, the memo said, established a “military like compound” in an area “restricted, controlled and patrolled by the IDF.

The gang leader, described by the Financial Times as “Gaza’s most notorious gangster” in November, is none other than Yasser Abu Shabab, the ringleader of aid looting and one of several criminals that escaped Hamas jails now in Israel’s employ. These also include salafi-jihadists like Issam Nabahin, who allegedly fought in the ranks of Islamic State in Sinai and was involved in firing rockets at Israel outside of Hamas’ auspices as well as Ghassan Duhine, a brother of an Islamic State operative killed by Hamas who was himself involved in the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit.

Abu Shabab’s “Popular Forces” militia, or “Anti-Terror Service”, is said to number about 100-300 individuals, although one report says it’s only “a few dozen”. An Israeli involved in the operation told Kan News:

This is a military unit that receives instructions from high-level officials and arms gangs inside Gaza. The unit transports, unloads, secures, and takes directions from Shin Bet officers who accompany the forces on the ground. I assume there are many such operations in various parts of the Gaza Strip. They are carried out at the request of the Intelligence Directorate and the Shin Bet, so I don’t know exactly how many… We brought in light weapons, a lot of equipment, and I think there was also money.

The weapons are reportedly captured from Hamas and Hezbollah and handed over.

The precise involvement of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the UAEgypt is unclear. Abu Shabab said that his forces “conduct [security checks] through the Palestinian intelligence service,” but claims to be unaffiliated.

PA sources told Ynet that the militia’s salaries are paid by the PA via one of its intelligence officers in Gaza, Baha al-Balusha, although overall PA intelligence chief Majed Faraj is unhappy with the arrangement. The same sources also said UAE agent, former Fatah man, and Mahmoud Abbas’ bête noire Mohammad Dahlan is involved, and that two more armed gangs, one in Beit Lahiya in the north and the other in central Gaza, are slated to begin operating soon.

A senior PA official told i24NEWS that “everything is coordinated with Mahmoud Abbas,” with the news organisation citing Arabic media reports saying that “an unnamed Arab country is involved in training the militia. Mahmoud al-Habash, advisor to Mahmoud Abbas, maintains direct contact with Abu Shabab.”

Meanwhile, CNN reported:

Abu Shabab’s force uses Palestinian insignia and flags prominently on its uniforms, but he told CNN that his “grassroots forces are not an official authority, nor are we operating under a direct mandate from the Palestinian Authority.”

The office of the spokesperson for the Palestinian Security Forces, Major General Anwar Rajab, told CNN there was no connection between the Palestinian security apparatus and Abu Shabab’s group.

Rajab told the New York Times, “I will issue a statement clarifying everything soon, as the matter is complex and involves overlapping security, political, and — most importantly — humanitarian factors.”

None of this really matters, except that Netanyahu wants this operation to be as indirect and [implausibly] deniable as possible, and therefore may be working through the PA/UAEgypt in terms of funding. Abu Shabab’s progressively more sophisticated social media campaign, and UAE license plates, indicates UAE involvement.

CNN also reported:

“Leaders and elders of the Abu Shabab family” said in a statement that they had confronted him about videos showing “Yasser’s groups involved in dangerous security engagements, even working within undercover units and supporting the Zionist occupation forces that brutally kill our people.”

The family declared its “complete disassociation from Yasser Abu Shabab” and urged anyone who had joined his security groups to do the same.

“We have no objection to those around him eliminating him immediately; we state clearly that his blood is wasted,” the family statement said.

Abu Shabab told CNN that the statement was “fabricated and false” and accompanied by “a media campaign targeting me and my colleagues.”

Abu Shabab himself has been at pains to repeatedly deny any affiliation with Israel since the news first broke, including this Facebook post on June 6:

To the masses of our Palestinian people,

The Israeli media has circulated false claims alleging that our popular forces received weapons from the occupation.

We completely reject these accusations and consider them an obvious attempt to tarnish the image of a grassroots force that was born from suffering and stood against injustice, looting, and corruption.

Our weapons are simple and modest, provided through the support of our people—from the meagre resources of our children, through donations from families, and from young men who found no choice but to protect humanitarian aid from theft and to defend families in eastern Rafah. Suspicious pages have deliberately avoided showing images of our weapons because they know our arms are primitive and old, which contradicts their lies and the occupation’s narrative.

We have not been and will never be a tool in the hands of the occupation, and we will not allow our name to be dragged into dubious schemes.

If the occupation has evidence, let it present it to our people and to the global media.

We call on everyone to visit our areas and investigate the facts before spreading lies that serve the occupation’s narrative by sowing division and deepening internal strife.

The occupation’s attempt to claim us as its own is nothing more than an indirect admission that we are a powerful and influential force.

We will remain committed to our principles, reject treason, and remain loyal to this proud people, who know their own and can distinguish the sincere from the impostors.

You will not succeed in demonising our liberation project from terrorism, and falsehood will not silence the voice of truth.

It does not bode well for the future of this plan, whatever it is, that everyone is still terrified of being associated with Israel, or of being associated with those associated with Israel.

At first glance, this appears to be the piloting of an “ink-spot strategy”, with Abu Shabab acting as a nominally independent Israeli proxy controlling territory while Israel controls aid distribution via the nominally independent Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

Further, as CNN reported:

On May 17, the day before the Kerem Shalom crossing reopened, work started on a tent encampment in eastern Rafah, according to satellite imagery reviewed by CNN. That work appears to have concluded on May 30.

The camp is less than 500 meters from where Abu Shabab runs checkpoints.

Four days later the so-called Popular Forces issued a statement saying that Abu Shabab “invites the residents of these areas to return, where food, drink, shelter, security and safety have been provided, shelter camps have been set up, and humanitarian relief routes have been opened.”

Abu Shabab is now calling on Gazans to volunteer for “administrative committees” to run these areas under his ostensible control. In an ideal world, the plan would be to start reconstruction there and allow in more aid, not just food aid, to stabilise them. There is no sign of this happening, however.

An ink-spot strategy is impossible to reconcile with Netanyahu’s recent declaration that one of the new goals of the war is to evict Gaza’s population, which comes after his statements about destroying as much infrastructure as possible to force Gazans to leave.

These gang proxies are not part of some coherent war or even postwar plan, but on the contrary, the result of Netanyahu refusing to have one.¹