"How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Iranian Bomb" Revisited

What a year this month has been. At least I was half right.

It’s far too early to assess the outcomes of Operation Rising Lion, the thing I literally just said probably wouldn’t happen a week before it did, so that’s exactly what I’m going to do.

But first, let’s dally in a little retrospective assessment of my June 5 post, “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Iranian Bomb”, and then proceed from there to explaining why this operation happened and why now, and only then move to irresponsible and inane speculation.

“Some Form of War”

In my previous post, I wrote the following:

However, for those who want to be as certain as possible that the regime won’t restart its nuclear weapons program, then there are only two options, as Obama correctly asserted in 2015: “Let’s not mince words: The choice we face is ultimately between diplomacy and some form of war.”

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“War” is a very strong word for what would happen under a military approach to ending Iran’s program, given Iran is utterly impotent. It can neither defend itself nor retaliate effectively, whether directly with its missiles or via its broken, bupkis global terrorism apparatus.

This was the case long before Israel destroyed what Iran did possess in terms of air defence systems. The regime’s alleged attempts to reconstitute its useless air defences are, well, useless.

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Israel alone, much less the US, could easily destroy Iran’s entire program, including all enrichment facilities. Even the deeply buried ones, if not entirely destroyed from the air, could be finished off via ground raids. Israel already demonstrated proof of concept for this in Syria last year, and could readily replicate that operation using its massive agent network in Iran and its ability to operate directly from Azerbaijan.

On this count, I’d say I scored fairly well. Since at least mid-2019, it has been obvious to me that the regime was so thoroughly penetrated by Israeli intelligence that it would be crippled immediately in any fight. Iran has always just been an Israeli playground.

That Iran wouldn’t be able to retaliate effectively, both because of the inaccuracy of its missiles and useless air defences – and Israel’s very good air defences – and the fact that Israel had a huge network of intelligence operatives inside the country would not have surprised anyone paying attention over the last two decades. Even the fact that IDF commandos were operating in Iran isn’t remotely surprising, as I wrote they’d be on standby for ground raids at Fordow if Israel couldn’t convince Trump.

The small Mossad teams that smuggled hundreds of small drones into Iran and prepositioned near air defences and ballistic missile launch sites to take them out in the opening hours of the campaign were also old hat. Mossad already tested this tactic in February and May 2022 and again in January 2023.

Rising Lion was different in scope, but not in kind, to assassination and sabotage operations against nuclear and missile scientists and sites ongoing in Iran since at least 2010.¹ In fact, the Jerusalem Post reported on July 3:

According to Mossad sources, 2002 was the first Mossad operation of manipulated and tampered equipment and technology as part of a new sustained and systematic campaign in that direction against both Iran and Hezbollah.

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The Mossad, through a variety of deceptive “straw men” and “fronts,” would eventually sell the Iranians a substantial amount of tampered equipment in 2003 and 2004, which had dramatic impacts in the realm of sabotage.

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In addition, already between 2004-2010, the Mossad was using drones to launch attacks in various places, including Iran.

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What happened this past June 13-24 in Iran was an enlargement of what the Mossad had already carried out numerous times in the past within Iranian territory.

Basically, no element of Israel’s successes or the regime’s hilariously humiliating failure was surprising.

מַה־שֶּֽׁהָיָה֙ ה֣וּא שֶׁיִּהְיֶ֔ה וּמַה־שֶּׁנַּֽעֲשָׂ֔ה ה֖וּא שֶׁיֵּעָשֶׂ֑ה וְאֵ֥ין כׇּל־חָדָ֖שׁ תַּ֥חַת הַשָּֽׁמֶש

יֵ֥שׁ דָּבָ֛ר שֶׁיֹּאמַ֥ר רְאֵה־זֶ֖ה חָדָ֣שׁ ה֑וּא כְּבָר֙ הָיָ֣ה לְעֹֽלָמִ֔ים אֲשֶׁ֥ר הָיָ֖ה מִלְּפָנֵֽנוּ

“There is little reason to believe Israel would actually strike Iran”

Now we get to the more embarrassing bit. I wrote on June 5:

Despite all the leaks from both the Israelis and Americans over the years, including over the past month, there is little reason to believe Israel would actually strike Iran, or that, if it did, it would be a full-fledged campaign that would target all relevant facilities in Iran. This makes it very difficult to take reports and leaks that Trump “waved off” imminent Israel strikes seriously.

What’s likely happening is Trump, because he is retarded, believes Bibi’s bluster about wanting to bomb Iran and therefore keeps telling him not to do anything to spoil his deal. Trump recently underlined this, saying, “It’s not a warning – I said I don’t think it’s appropriate.”

Meanwhile, some of Trump’s officials, because they are also retarded, are leaking this stuff to try and obstruct an Israeli strike that the Israelis don’t actually want to launch, while other officials, perhaps the dumbest of them all, are leaking in an attempt to use the threat of Israeli strikes to pressure Iran during negotiations, something the Saudis also seem to be doing, obviously at US behest.

Bibi, for his part, wants to look tough for his domestic audience and is happy for them to believe that he’s serious about substantially striking Iran but is being blocked by the US from taking action.

The Iranians understand that both Trump and Bibi are absurd half-man buffoons who think only in terms of themselves and domestic politics and hate decisive military action.

Now, to be fair to me, the regime had exactly the same assumptions as I did. I don’t know why I didn’t realise something had fundamentally changed in terms of Bibi’s calculus on hitting Iran after it decimated Hezbollah in late 2024, because I myself wrote² in August 2024 that the calculus could change in the event of a rapid defeat of Hezbollah:

Having neutralised Hezbollah, and with US security guarantees against Iranian missile and drone salvos, Iran itself would be defenceless and unable to respond to Israeli operations to destroy its nuclear facilities.

The Wall Street Journal reported on February 12:

U.S. intelligence agencies concluded during the final days of the Biden administration that Israel is considering significant strikes on Iranian nuclear sites this year, aiming to take advantage of Iran’s weakness, officials familiar with the report said.

The finding was included in an analytical assessment produced around the new year as the Biden administration wound down. The analysis highlighted the risks of further high-stakes military activity in the Middle East after the degradation of Iran’s capabilities over the past year.

The intelligence analysis concluded Israel would push the Trump administration to back the strikes, viewing him as more likely to join an attack than former President Joe Biden and fearing the window for halting Tehran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon was closing, two of the people familiar with the intelligence said.

The U.S. intelligence community produced a second report delivered during the early days of President Trump’s administration reiterating that Israel is considering such strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to one of the U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence.

The Washington Post reported on June 25, citing current and former Israeli officials:

After Israel decimated Iran’s air defenses in a missile skirmish and crippled its main ally, Hezbollah, in October, Netanyahu issued a general order to prepare for a strike, the current and former officials said. Israeli intelligence officials began huddling to compile lists of dozens of Iranian nuclear scientists and military leaders who could be targeted for assassination. Israel’s air force began to systematically take out air defenses in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq to clear the skies for future bombing runs against Iran… senior Israeli government officials said they had already decided by March, weeks before Netanyahu met Trump in the Oval Office on April 7, to strike Iran with or without U.S. participation by June at the latest, said two people with knowledge of the matter.

The Wall Street Journal reported on June 26 about Operation Narnia, the assassination of Iran’s primary nuclear scientists and military officials, the planning for which began as soon as Hezbollah sued for peace:

In November 2024, the military gathered 120 intelligence and air force officials together to decide who and what would be in their crosshairs when fighting began.

In the end, the conference drew up a list of over 250 targets, including the scientists the Israelis wanted to kill, nuclear sites, Iranian missile launchers and military officials

But even with all that, I still didn’t believe Bibi would defy Trump.

Israel’s widespread decimation of Iran’s air defences and strikes on key missile sites in late October, called Operations Days of Repentance, in retaliation for Iran’s massive ballistic missile attack earlier that month, was clearly a test run, paving the way for Rising Lion, but I was too hooked on my priors and [rightfully] feeling nothing but contempt for Bibi to see it. However, the attack did not “target all relevant facilities in Iran”, as predicted, though it’s not clear how relevant this is.

As for my claim that “Trump and Bibi are absurd half-man buffoons who think only in terms of themselves and domestic politics and hate decisive military action,” this remains accurate.

“Under Bibi and Trump, it would be an inevitably haphazard affair with no broader strategy that would come to a precipitous, pointless, stupid end.”

Me on June 5:

The odds of a comprehensive military campaign to destroy all of Iran’s nuclear facilities are virtually zero under these effete clowncucks, and the Iranians know it.

And that’s probably for the best, because under Bibi and Trump, it would be an inevitably haphazard affair with no broader strategy that would come to a precipitous, pointless, stupid end. It would be mostly risk-free, aside from maybe some drones getting shot down, and it would destroy or damage many facilities and capabilities. It might even set the program back a few months or even years! But we’d all end up right back here relatively quickly, with the core of the program intact and reconstituting.

Who knows, it might even all work out well. I’d enjoy watching it either way.

But such a half-assed operation might convince the Iranians that they should finally convert their bomb option into a bomb… why risk it when there’s a deal to be had, one for which Trump has been practically begging for years?

The jury is still out on this one. Let’s say I was partially right.

While the campaign was more comprehensive than I, and, clearly, the regime, expected it to be, it did not destroy all of Iran’s facilities. Nor was there any broader strategy. And it did come to a precipitous, pointless, stupid end. Plus, I did enjoy watching it.

In addition, I allowed that even a non-comprehensive campaign could set the program back months, years, or even indefinitely. Alternatively, I said it could finally convince the Iranians to try and break out, something they were not interested in doing when the operation was launched. We won’t know either way for quite a while.

As for my assertions about Trump’s desperation for a deal, that was and remains accurate. He really didn’t want Israel to strike. The eve of Rising Lion, he said regarding the potential for an operation:

I don't want to say imminent, but it looks like it's something that could very well happen.

Look, it's very simple, not complicated. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful. I want them to be tremendous. We will help them be successful. We will trade with them. We will do whatever is necessary. I want to have an agreement with Iran. We're fairly close to an agreement. As long as I think there is an agreement, I don't want them going in, because I think that would blow it.

Might help it, actually, but it also could blow it. There's a chance of massive conflict. We have a lot of American people in this area. And I said, we got to tell them to get out because something could happen soon.

Trump was simply too weak to stop Bibi and resigned himself to the strikes after months of blocking Rising Lion. While eventually Fox News, the praise he was getting, and his need to insert himself into the drama convinced him to undertake the strike, after reportedly warning the Iranians to evacuate the facilities, he still remains desperate for a deal.

Even as Israel was striking, Trump attempted to organise a last-minute meeting with the Iranians in Istanbul, and was reportedly “prepared to send Vice President J.D. Vance and White House envoy Steve Witkoff — or even travel himself to meet Iran's president, if that's what it would take to reach a deal.”

So desperate was Trump for a deal that he was ready to call back the B-2 bombers he had dispatched to bomb Fordow at the slightest sign of a diplomatic window, and is still, even now, pursuing diplomacy. Axios reported on June 22:

As the strike was underway, White House envoy Steve Witkoff sent a message to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to make clear that the operation was a one-off and limited strictly to Iran's nuclear program, a U.S. official told Axios.

Witkoff, who has remained in direct contact with Araghchi throughout the crisis, emphasized that the U.S. still seeks a diplomatic resolution — and now wants Iran to return to the table following the destruction of its key enrichment sites, the official said.

Several senior Trump officials, including Vance and Hegseth, stressed Sunday that the U.S. does not seek regime change in Iran and called on the Iranians to return to the negotiating table.

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Trump still wants a deal with Iran — and wanted one before the bombers took off, an adviser to the president told Axios.

“Once the B-2s were radio silent, it was too late,” the source said. “But the phones are open now.”

Trump stopped the Israelis from assassinating Khamenei, something the Israelis deny,³ and, a single Truth Social post notwithstanding, has continued to reiterate how anathema the idea of regime change is to him.

The New York Times reported on June 22 that Trump told his advisors “that Israel would be foolish to try to assassinate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader Moreover, he said, if the United States were to strike Iran, the goal should be to decimate its nuclear facilities, not to bring down its government.”

Why? Because, like I said in August 2024, “Trump has been fairly consistent on this issue: he wants the same relationship with Khamenei as he has with Kim, Xi and Putin. All he asks in return is a JCPOA he can put his name on alongside a photo-op.”

Negotiations are reportedly back on, with the uncompromising negotiating positions unchanged. Iran denies this. Axios reported on July 4 that “White House envoy Steve Witkoff is planning to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week,” but “The sources said a final date hasn't been set, and neither country has publicly confirmed the meeting.”

The narrative of a long-term deception operation is bogus. Like me, Iran didn’t believe Bibi would strike, despite all the leaks to this effect, because he’s a chickenshit who’s been blustering about it for decades.

And even if a unique confluence of events outweighed his cowardice, he wouldn’t defy Trump, who just wanted a deal and surely wouldn’t allow Israel to ruin his negotiations, which would’ve taken place had Rising Lion not been launched to head them off.⁴

What Iran, and I, misjudged, was that Bibi saw a unique window to hit Iran, and, far more importantly, raise his political support ahead of the early elections he clearly wanted to call after surviving threats by his ultra-orthodox coalition partners to bring down the Government. All of this overshadowed his own natural chickenshittedness.

Trump, meanwhile, is too weak a person to matter one way or the other. I should never have factored him in.

No strategic “headfakes”, no deception. Everything is exactly as it looked on the surface. Bibi made clear he wanted to strike for months, Trump held him off as long as he could, and then quickly imposed a ceasefire, after taking out Fordow and finishing off the enrichment site at Natanz, so he could get back to his deal.

What we saw was just a weak man who suddenly saw a military and political opportunity and an even weaker man who wanted all the credit when he saw the first weak man’s action was popular.

Operation Rising Lion

Operation Rising Lion was a tactical campaign, not a strategic one.

Whatever its appearance, there was no coherent plan beyond attacking a particular set of nuclear facilities and scientists coupled with a separate set of targets to disrupt the regime’s ability to retaliate effectively, these being the military command structure and ballistic missiles, missile launchers, and facilities involved in their production. The campaign was remarkably successful and brilliant in this regard.

But it’s important to note that the narrative presented by Netanyahu is false. This operation was not a response to anything the regime had done or was planning to do, but instead the result of a serendipitous confluence of political and military factors that allowed Israel to hit its arch-nemesis with impunity and further reduce the potential, not actual, threat it presented. One source told the Washington Post that the attack was fully decided in March, with a June deadline, because “Iran would have rebuilt its air defenses by the latter half of the year.”

Israel did this simply because it could, and the timing, and politics, worked.

Nuclear Nonsense

First, Iran did not want the bomb, and there’s no evidence whatsoever that it was attempting to develop one. It wanted a credible bomb option, not a bomb. It was certainly not on the verge of imminent nuclear breakout.